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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."